Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 4.094772 4.864208 5.718546 6.734650 7.907220 9.214787 10.780085
2025-05-18 2.712581 3.672091 4.861182 6.430094 8.431021 10.881527 14.091596
2025-05-25 1.871966 2.844813 4.171502 6.083347 8.732346 12.232269 17.156568
2025-06-01 1.408206 2.368953 3.792366 6.002858 9.283884 13.895274 20.765590
2025-06-08 1.089654 2.011393 3.482973 5.924614 9.772206 15.473560 24.388116
2025-06-15 0.935404 1.870733 3.462290 6.253824 10.875841 18.026593 29.651442
2025-06-22 0.769194 1.664998 3.287182 6.288661 11.497240 19.888271 34.032046
2025-06-29 0.635215 1.483800 3.114262 6.286317 12.035818 21.648399 38.392694
2025-07-06 0.526598 1.324548 2.947545 6.259012 12.511172 23.330266 42.754961
2025-07-13 0.494083 1.318784 3.073819 6.791135 14.035791 26.909498 50.564439
2025-07-20 0.437848 1.245229 3.047720 7.018156 15.015308 29.620186 57.099997
2025-07-27 0.391216 1.182732 3.032483 7.260719 16.043907 32.497104 64.140013
2025-08-03 0.331003 1.072863 2.898349 7.247213 16.594472 34.599540 70.064187
2025-08-10 0.266626 0.933235 2.668548 6.991107 16.626550 35.743181 74.355823
2025-08-17 0.209960 0.796820 2.416659 6.640734 16.411939 36.383864 77.752311
2025-08-24 0.175514 0.716535 2.289881 6.561741 16.768028 38.173884 83.482821
2025-08-31 0.146871 0.645055 2.170647 6.479847 17.103206 39.943722 89.302048
2025-09-07 0.136671 0.634806 2.221188 6.837116 18.485599 43.994744 99.968645
2025-09-14 0.118396 0.588026 2.154715 6.875166 19.116472 46.501456 107.660932
2025-09-21 0.101794 0.541352 2.078103 6.872754 19.647286 48.832387 115.150741
2025-09-28 0.087081 0.496449 1.996755 6.843251 20.105714 51.038010 122.527230
2025-10-05 0.086041 0.511981 2.118584 7.418861 22.158322 56.963482 138.220740
2025-10-12 0.078720 0.495611 2.128379 7.664310 23.382463 61.094447 150.287276